Never Bet on Luck in Poker
April 24, 2008
There are several common phrases associated with poker that include the concept of luck. Many
people think of luck as a random occurrence, the act of a higher being, a mystical and uncontrollable thing.
The truth is that luck is really just the result of something happening against great odds.
These things are unlikely but possible; if they were impossible then there would be no such thing as poker odds. The real key to poker is skill. Poker incorporates a wide variety of skills. Math skills are integral to understanding the odds of the game (thereby debunking the idea of luck).
Intuition is an excellent skill to have when reading your other players. Concentration is a crucial skill in the game of poker where so many subtle things are happening at once. Patience, logic, memory, chutzpah…the list of skills related to poker strategy is endless.
There are no professional players that got where they are with luck. All of these players possess a strong combination of the skills mentioned earlier and understand the different types of poker players. It is important to note that these skills are not luck either; skillful playing and a real understanding of the game come from practice and observation.
Back to that bad word … luck.
While it’s really just hitting the low end of odds, the word and the idea have become synonymous with poker. How common and useful is “luck?” Luck is fairly uncommon, or it wouldn’t be called luck. When players hit a so-called lucky streak, it can mean great things for their game and ultimately their bankroll. Betting on luck, however, is incredibly reckless, because the point of luck is that it’s rare, making the probability of your getting “lucky” highly unlikely. Furthermore, superstitious people would do well to remember that there is bad luck too.
By virtue of its name, luck is totally unreliable. You cannot predict it nor do anything to control it. By viewing luck as a product of odds and probability, you can control your risk. Odds and probability are not a guarantee but an estimate of likelihood, which means that they are not foolproof either, but betting on odds is far safer than betting on luck. Playing with the hopes of getting lucky is like playing with no strategy at all.
The surest way to win is to improve your understanding of the game. Many times beginners think more successful players are “getting lucky.” In truth, these players have put in their time and honed their skills. This is a far more reliable strategy for winning in poker than luck.
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